Thursday, October 8, 2009

Auburn's luck about to change



Today’s lucky number as far as the Auburn Tigers are concerned is 5.

The Gene Chizik Era at Auburn has begun with five consecutive victories, which is as many victories as Chizik had in two seasons as head coach at Iowa State, where he was 5-19.

The five victories match the number of victories the Tigers had in 2008 when they finished 5-7, leading to Coach Tommy Tuberville’s departure and Chizik’s arrival.

The 5-0 start also has vaulted Auburn to a No. 17 ranking in the Associated Press poll.

Now, the question is whether their impressive start means the Tigers are suddenly contenders in the rugged Southeastern Conference West Division.

From this vantage point, the answer is not yet.

The Tigers are 2-0 in the SEC, but both of their victories came against non-contenders Mississippi State and Tennessee, although the latter was on the road in Knoxville.

I still don’t think the Tigers are in the same class with SEC West heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss.

I might change my mind if the Tigers can win at Arkansas on Saturday, but I doubt if Auburn will.


The Tigers have plenty of offensive firepower to win another road game, although I thought quarterback Chris Todd was shaky at Tennessee last Saturday.

What concerns me is Auburn’s defense, particularly its pass defense going against Arkansas sophomore quarterback Ryan Mallett. Mallett is tied for eighth nationally with 11 touchdown passes and has led the Razorbacks to the top passing offense in the SEC.

Vols quarterback Jonathan Crompton threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns against Auburn and those numbers would have been better if Tennessee’s receivers didn’t have a sudden case of slippery fingers and dropped a bunch of passes.

In order for the Tigers keep Mallet from picking them apart, they had better come up a pass rush, something they didn’t do against Crompton. The Tigers had no sacks and didn’t have an interception though Crompton attempted 43 passes. Auburn's senior defensive end Antonio Coleman, the team's best pass rusher, has only 2.5 sacks in five games.

Auburn also has to adjust to playing in the daytime. Their first five games were at night, but the game at Arkansas kicks off at 11 a.m. CST.

"This is uncharted territory for us," Chizik said. "All of our games have been night games so far and it will be interesting. For early games we get up, eat, then play, but it shouldn't really affect us. This does create a new series of things that we will encounter, especially with such a young team. Not only is this an SEC road game, it is also an 11 o’clock game, but that shouldn't matter."
No, it shouldn’t matter, but it will. And I suspect by mid-afternoon Saturday, Auburn’s unlucky number will be 1 – as in the first loss of the Gene Chizik Era.

Let’s make it Arkansas 38, Auburn 31.

No comments:

Post a Comment